Salafi-jihadi insurgencies have proliferated in Africa in the past decade. Salafi-jihadi groups had territorial bases in just four countries at the start of 2011: Afghanistan, Kenya, Pakistan, and Somalia. By 2015, Salafi-jihadi insurgencies were active in 14 countries. By 2021, the number had reached at least 35,3 including a dramatic expansion in sub-Saharan Africa.

Several risk factors tend to contribute to the for­mation of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies, even as individual cases vary. These factors, listed in the report, are derived from a synthesis of existing studies on insur­gency and state fragility and the case studies summa­rized in this report.