Jihad in Times of Pandemic: To What Extent has the Coronavirus Influenced and Will Influence Jihadist Terrorism and Violence?
Author(s):
This paper analyses the effects of the crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic on terrorism and jihadist-inspired violence throughout 2020. The study begins by identifying the short, medium, and long-term forecasts made by international experts in the initial months of the pandemic. Afterwards, it studies the incidence that the outbreak of the coronavirus has had on jihadist discourse and propaganda, as well as on other non-violent activities promoted by these actors. Thirdly, it analyses the evolution of jihadist violence from February 2019 to November 2020 in Western Europe, several regions of Africa, the Middle East, and Afghanistan and Pakistan. Finally, a broad section is devoted to discussing and assessing the extent to which initial forecasts have been confirmed by the facts or could be confirmed in the future.