Existing processes, methods and tools to identify and evaluate the risk of involvement in terrorism and violent extremism (ITVE) operate largely at the individual level. Comparatively less attention has been devoted to identifying and evaluating the characteristics of the socio-physical contexts (i.e. environments, settings, places)  which may contribute to the emergence of the risk of ITVE, or, conversely, to its suppression.

This project investigated the feasibility of developing a framework to assess the risk of involvement in terrorism and violent extremism at the level of environment. This requirement was conducted via a modified e-Delphi exercise with UK front-line practitioners in order to produce a shortlist of indicators that might characterise ITVE risk-promoting and risk-suppressing systems (societies), social ecologies (neighbourhoods) and settings, as well as the risk of individual selection for exposure.

The modified eDelphi exercise consisted of three phases. In Phase 1, a systematic literature search was carried out to produce a raw list of environmental risk and protective indicators associated with ITVE.  In Phase 2, the narrow list of indicators generated by the literature search (now supplemented by additional environmental ‘place’ indicators drawn from the criminological literature) was translated into an online survey, which was administered to a group of ITVE experts for their professional opinion. This survey produced a further reduced list of indicators. In a similar manner a second online survey was then administered (n = 43) to produce a final shortlist of indicators. Finally in Phase 3, a focus group with a small set of ITVE experts (most of whom had not taken part in the survey rounds) was conducted to gather qualitative feedback on the shortlist produced by the two rounds of online surveys, as well as comments on the exercise as a whole and the desirability of going forward with the development of a risk analysis tool.