The relationship between hate crimes and terrorism remains a significant policy and academic concern. We provide the first empirical exploration of this relationship in New Zealand, drawing upon an original dataset of right-wing violent extremist (RWVE) incidents between 1997 and 2022. Employing analytical models of escalation and reaction we find evidence of connectivity between hate crime and terrorism, indicating that the links between them have significance for threat assessments of RWVE. We argue that the “either/or” implications of the “close cousins-distant relatives” dichotomy in existing literature on hate crime-terrorism linkages is misleading and identify new dynamics relevant for examining this relationship and monitoring the potential for violent hate crime acting as a barometer for more extreme activity, including terrorism.